Development Logic
How projects move from land, through uncertainty, to income.
Insights on real estate, capital, cities, and AI
Build better real estate decisions.
A field guide to how land, capital, design, approvals, construction, leasing, and operations shape real estate outcomes.
Architecture
Design training
Finance
Capital discipline
Real estate
Executive practice
AI
Applied workflows
Field view / Nairobi National Park
A city reveals its values in what it builds—and what it preserves.
Five lenses
Real estate is a system, not a sequence of silos.
The Playbook connects the disciplines that are too often considered separately.
Capital and Underwriting
How assumptions, finance, and return requirements shape what gets built.
Urban Growth
How Nairobi and African cities are changing—and what development changes in return.
Design and Delivery
How architecture, approvals, procurement, and construction affect enduring value.
AI for Real Estate
How AI can improve research, feasibility, inspection, reporting, and judgment.
Latest thinking
Notes for people who make, fund, and study places.
Development
01How many units must be pre-sold before construction starts?
A practical guide to setting pre-sales thresholds using lender conditions, funding gaps, buyer deposits, cancellation buffers, and sales velocity.
26 June 20269 min read ↗
Capital
02Rent vs buy: when renting and investing beats buying
A decision guide for comparing home ownership with renting and investing the deposit, monthly savings, and avoided transaction costs.
26 June 20268 min read ↗
Urban Growth
03Nairobi is becoming a network of cities
An illustrated field note on Nairobi’s shift from one dominant centre toward a connected constellation of specialised urban nodes.
25 June 20268 min read ↗
Calculators
Turn questions into structured decisions.
See the assumptions, test the trade-offs, and produce an output that can be challenged.
Feasibility / Scenario 02
Land
KES 180m
Build cost
KES 642m
GDV
KES 1.14bn
Margin
18.6%
Illustrative output
T–01Available
Development Feasibility Calculator
Test revenue, cost, finance, timing, and return assumptions in one clear development view.
Open tool →
T–02Available
Rental Yield Calculator
Move from headline rent to net yield with allowances for vacancy, service charge, and operating cost.
Open tool →
T–03Available
Land Residual Calculator
Estimate the land value a project can support after development costs and target returns.
Open tool →
T–04Available
Construction Cost Sensitivity
See how cost escalation and specification choices affect margin and required selling price.
Open tool →
Sample briefing / Issue 01
The Development Brief
Inside this issue
Why land price is an output, not an input.
One framework. One African market signal. One practical AI workflow.
The Development Brief
One useful idea for better real estate decisions.
A practical briefing on African real estate development, capital, cities, and AI.
Models & templates
Models and templates built for the work between the meetings.
Development Feasibility Template
Excel workbook · In development
Development Feasibility Checklist
Checklist · Free
Kenya Site Acquisition Due Diligence Pack
Excel pack + PDF guide · Free
04
Nairobi Apartment Development Cost Guide 2026
Indicative apartment construction ranges, scope definitions, cost drivers, a worked development-cost stack, and an editable early-feasibility planner.
Excel planner + PDF guide
Free
Open guide →
05
Development Finance Readiness Pack for Kenya & East Africa
A lender-facing readiness framework covering sponsor, structure, land, approvals, market evidence, delivery, debt capacity, security, conditions precedent, and the data room.
Excel pack + PDF guide
Free
Open guide →
06
Apartment Unit-Mix Planning Brief
A demand-led framework for testing apartment mix against unit economics, absorption, efficiency, parking, revenue and concentration risk.
Excel planner + PDF brief
Free
Open guide →
07
Real Estate Investment Memo
A decision-ready memo template for turning analysis into an investable recommendation.
PDF + Word
Free
Get template →
08
Apartment Underwriting Model
A detailed apartment development model covering assumptions, sales, cash flow, returns, sensitivity, lender metrics, and risk.
Excel workbook
Available
Preview model →
09
Development Lifecycle Canvas
Map the workstreams, gates, stakeholders, and evidence required from site to operations.
Printable canvas
Preview
View preview →
10
Nairobi Node Research Pack
A repeatable framework for comparing accessibility, demand, supply, and development pressure.
Research pack
Coming soon
Notify me →
Author portrait slot
Replace with an authentic portrait of Raphael.
Author / Practitioner
Raphael Mwito
An architect, CFA charterholder, real estate executive, and AI practitioner working at the intersection of the built environment and investment decisions.
ArchitectureCapitalDevelopmentApplied AI
Work with the playbook