Calculator T-10 / Available
How much must be sold before the project can start?
Convert pre-sales from a vague comfort target into a funding, lender, and sales-velocity threshold.
Assumption set
Project
Gross development value
KES 1.39bn
Funding gap
KES 170.0m
Net deposit rate
7.0%
Expected sales by start
30.0 units
Model checks
- — The required pre-sales level is high; check whether the programme assumes too much market absorption before start.
- — Equity and debt do not fully cover the start threshold without buyer deposits.
Start threshold
Pre-sales test
Required binding pre-sales
KES 1.39bn
Equivalent to 96 units or 100.0% of GDV, after the cancellation buffer.
Deposits collected
KES 97.4m
Funding cover
83.4%
Sales pace required
19.2 / month
Pace surplus / gap
-66.0 units
Lender condition
KES 487.2m
Unsold stock
KES 0
Sensitivity matrix
Deposit quality vs cost pressure.
Each cell shows required pre-sales as a percentage of GDV. Terracotta cells signal heavy pre-start sales dependence.
| Cost / Deposit | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 84.4% | 59.6% | 46.0% |
| 0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 80.5% | 62.2% |
| +5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 78.3% |
| +10% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 94.4% |
| +15% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Method note
The model compares three practical thresholds: lender-required pre-sales, deposit cash needed to close the funding gap, and a minimum sales signal to support the target project margin.
The result should be treated as a start-gate discipline tool. It excludes escrow rules, tax, refund mechanics, buyer credit quality, irregular milestone payments, and detailed monthly construction cash flows.
Questions / Method
Pre-sales are not applause. They are risk control.
What does a pre-sales requirement calculator measure?
It estimates the minimum binding pre-sales required before a project can safely start or continue funding. The calculation considers lender pre-sale conditions, available equity, debt facility, buyer deposits, funding gaps, cancellation buffers, and sales velocity.
Why are buyer deposits important?
Buyer deposits can reduce the cash gap before construction, but only the net deposit after commissions, legal costs, and likely cancellations should be treated as reliable funding support.
Does meeting the pre-sales number mean construction should start?
Not automatically. The pre-sales threshold is one decision gate. Developers still need approvals, funding documentation, contractor readiness, buyer quality, escrow rules, and updated cost checks before committing to construction.