The Development
Playbook

Tool T–01 / Available

Make the development case explain itself.

Connect land, product, pricing, cost, capital, and time in one transparent early-stage feasibility view.

Scenario tools

Share the current assumptions or print the complete result to PDF.

Assumption set

Site & product

Gross floor area

7,000 m²

Saleable area

5,740 m²

Break-even price

KES 145,558

Residual land value

KES 229.4m

Base-case output

Investment view

Meets target

Development profit

KES 226.4m

Margin on cost

27.1%

Margin on revenue

21.3%

Cost compositionKES 835.5m
LandKES 180.0m
ConstructionKES 504.0m
Fees and contingencyKES 65.5m
Finance and salesKES 86.0m

Sensitivity matrix

Price × construction cost.

Each cell shows margin on cost. The center cell is the current base case.

Cost / Price-10%-5%0%+5%+10%
-10%23.9%30.6%37.2%43.9%50.5%
-5%19.1%25.6%32.0%38.4%44.8%
0%14.7%20.9%27.1%33.3%39.4%
+5%10.6%16.6%22.6%28.5%34.5%
+10%6.8%12.6%18.4%24.1%29.9%

01

Inputs to prepare

  • Site and permitted development area
  • Saleable area and achievable pricing
  • Construction, professional, marketing, and contingency costs
  • Debt share, interest, programme, and target return

02

Outputs to interpret

  • Gross development value
  • Total development cost
  • Project profit and development margin
  • Simple return and funding indicators

03

What this does not tell you

  • Detailed monthly cash flow and staged drawdowns
  • Tax, escalation, infrastructure contributions, and statutory charges
  • Unit-level absorption, buyer defaults, and leasing voids
  • Legal, planning, technical, environmental, and valuation due diligence

04

Read the result

A 22% margin can still be fragile if it depends on one selling price, a compressed programme, or costs measured against the wrong area. Change one assumption at a time and record which relationship breaks first.

Use this frameworkNairobi Development Feasibility Starter PackMove from a quick calculation to a documented site screen, cost plan, finance-readiness review, and investment recommendation.Open starter pack

Method note

This prototype estimates gross development value from saleable area and average selling price. It applies professional fees and contingency to construction cost, marketing to GDV, and a simplified finance charge based on average debt outstanding.

It does not yet model tax, detailed cash flow, staged drawdowns, presales, absorption, escalation, unit mix, parking, infrastructure contributions, or income-producing exit values. Use it to structure an early question—not to replace a project-specific investment model.

Questions / Method

What the first feasibility should answer.

What does a development feasibility study test?

It connects land, planning capacity, saleable or lettable area, pricing, construction and professional costs, finance, programme, and risk to test whether a project can meet its return requirements.

What is development margin?

Development margin is project profit divided by total development cost. It is a simple return-on-cost measure and should be read alongside cash flow timing, equity returns, and downside sensitivity.

Can this calculator replace a detailed financial model?

No. It is an early-stage decision aid. A live investment decision requires project-specific tax, cash flow, drawdown, sales or leasing absorption, escalation, infrastructure, and exit assumptions.

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